Mongoose Bets | The Math Behind the Line — MLB Analytics
Sean Newcomb
Chicago White Sox · Chicago White Sox vs Detroit Tigers · confirmed starter · Pitcher
ERA 3.38 · WHIP 1.50 · K 17% · 10 starts
SEAN NEWCOMB
Over K—@ —
POWERED BYMONGOOSE MODELS
Prop Board
K
no line
Win
no line
ER
no line
H
no line
SEAN
NEWCOMB
Over K—
Pitch Arsenal · 30d
4-Seam45%94 mph
Slurve32%83 mph
Sinker17%93 mph
Matchup
VS DET LINEUP
SEASON RATES BELOW
VS
ERA
3.38
WHIP
1.50
K%
17%
Statcast · vs MLB Avg
| Pitcher | MLB Avg | |
|---|---|---|
| Whiff% | 22% | 25% |
| SwStr% | 9.8% | 11% |
| Chase% | 28% | 28% |
| xwOBA-a | .378 | .315 |
| Barrel%-a | 15% | 8% |
| HardHit%-a | 39% | 39% |
Recent Form · Last 5
0.8
K/GM
0.9
IP/GM
0.00
ERA
0.64
WHIP
Strikeout Upside
17% season K rate
Contact Suppression
15% barrel · 39% hard-hit allowed
Park / Weather
Pitcher's park · air suppressing HR
Mongoose Model Projection
—
Model Prob
—
Fair Odds
—
EDGE —
Recent Form · K last 10 starts
0 of 10 starts over
Last 5: 0.00 ERA · 25% K
Season—
Home—
Last 5—
vs DET—
Tonight's Park
HR
-10%
Hits
-2%
2B
-8%
3B
+42%
K
-1%
vs league average · green helps the pitcher (K not inverted)
Tonight's Weather + Adjustment
Temp
75°
Wind
9 179°
Rain
0%
HR Adj
-18%
K Adj
+2%
weather impact on projections · green helps the pitcher
odds as of 1:31 PM ET · projections from 2,500 Monte Carlo simulations per game
Projections from 2,500 Monte Carlo simulations per game. Statcast & pitch mix refreshed daily; season rates from game logs.