Mongoose Bets | The Math Behind the Line — MLB + NFL + CFB + WNBA + PGA Analytics
Shane Drohan
Milwaukee Brewers · Texas Rangers vs Milwaukee Brewers · confirmed starter · Pitcher
ERA 4.32 · WHIP 1.35 · K 23% · 11 starts
SHANE DROHAN
K—@ —
POWERED BYMONGOOSE MODELS
Prop Board
K
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Win
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ER
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H
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SHANE
DROHAN
K—
Pitch Arsenal · 30d
4-Seam25%95 mph
Slider23%87 mph
Cutter17%92 mph
Sinker17%95 mph
Curveball12%82 mph
Changeup5%87 mph
Matchup
VS TEX LINEUP
SEASON RATES BELOW
VS
ERA
4.32
WHIP
1.35
K%
23%
Statcast · vs MLB Avg
| Pitcher | MLB Avg | |
|---|---|---|
| Whiff% | 22% | 25% |
| SwStr% | 10.1% | 11% |
| Chase% | 32% | 28% |
| xwOBA-a | .368 | .315 |
| Barrel%-a | 10% | 8% |
| HardHit%-a | 37% | 39% |
Recent Form · Last 5
4.2
K/GM
4.5
IP/GM
4.84
ERA
1.79
WHIP
Strikeout Upside
23% season K rate
Contact Suppression
10% barrel · 37% hard-hit allowed
Park / Weather
HR-friendly park
Mongoose Model Projection
—
Model Prob
—
Fair Odds
—
EDGE —
Recent Form · K last 11 starts
0 of 11 starts over
Last 5: 4.84 ERA · 21% K
Season—
Home—
Last 5—
vs TEX—
Tonight's Park
HR
+8%
Hits
-6%
2B
-17%
3B
-9%
K
+11%
vs league average · green helps the pitcher (K not inverted)
Tonight's Weather + Adjustment
Temp
72°
Wind
0
Rain
0%
HR Adj
0%
K Adj
0%
weather impact on projections · green helps the pitcher
odds as of 5:01 PM ET · projections from 2,500 Monte Carlo simulations per game
Projections from 2,500 Monte Carlo simulations per game. Statcast & pitch mix refreshed daily; season rates from game logs.