Mongoose Bets | The Math Behind the Line — MLB Analytics
Shohei Ohtani
Los Angeles Dodgers · Los Angeles Dodgers vs Arizona Diamondbacks
MG Score
77
B+
Tonight's Matchup
52
Matchup
Neutral matchup
vs Michael Soroka · RHP · 88.2 mph avg
50 = avg vs tonight's starters
ERA
1.62
WHIP
0.87
K%
20%
Statcast matchup
Batter
Pitcher
Exit Velo
92.4
80.2
Barrel%
16.9%
10.5%
Hard Hit%
55%
16%
xwOBA
.485
.215
xSLG
.722
.314
Whiff%
25%
10%
Chase%
27%
40%
Pitcher column = the rate this starter allows. Green = good for that player, red = poor (vs MLB average).
First career meeting vs Michael Soroka.
Tonight's Projection
Statcast · last 30d
Exit Velo
92.4
Barrel%
16.9%
Hard Hit%
55%
Sweet Spot%
48%
xwOBA
0.485
xSLG
0.722
Recent Games
Last 5
100%
5/5 games
Last 10
80%
8/10 games
Last 20
79%
15/19 games
Last 30
79%
15/19 games
AVG
.368
OBP
.442
SLG
.579
OPS
1.021
HR
2
RBI
5
| Date | vs | AB | H | HR | RBI | BB | K | SB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6/1 | Arizona Diamondbacks | 4 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 5/31 | Philadelphia Phillies | 5 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
| 5/30 | Philadelphia Phillies | 5 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 |
| 5/29 | Philadelphia Phillies | 4 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
| 5/27 | Colorado Rockies | 4 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
| 5/26 | Colorado Rockies | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 5/25 | Colorado Rockies | 3 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| 5/24 | Milwaukee Brewers | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
| 5/23 | Milwaukee Brewers | 5 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 |
| 5/22 | Milwaukee Brewers | 3 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 |
Spray Chart
Spray Rain
Spray Read
Shohei Ohtani
Los Angeles Dodgers · bats RHB
vs Pitcher Hand
Window
Avg EV
93.5 mph
Avg LA
12.1°
Hard-hit %
48%
Barrel %
17%
Outcomes (100 balls)
Home Run
5Triple
1Double
9Single
21Out
64Each dot is a real batted ball this player hit, pulled from Statcast tracking.
Advanced Statcast
Data Period: 5/23/2026 - 6/1/2026
Games: 9
Statcast Performance Profile
Advanced metrics from Statcast data (last 10 days)
Overall Grade
APerformance Score
84Exit Velo
95.5 mph
Average exit velocity off the bat
Hard Hit%
70.4%
Percentage of balls hit 95+ mph
Chase%
32.1%
Percentage of swings at pitches outside the zone
xwOBA
0.523
Expected weighted on-base average
Sweet Spot%
51.9%
Percentage of balls hit at ideal launch angle
Performance Insights
Strengths: Exit Velo, Hard Hit%
Areas for Improvement: Chase%
How to Read This Chart
Excellent (75-100)
Good (60-74)
Average (45-59)
Below Average (0-44)
The larger the shape, the better the overall performance. Each point represents a different advanced metric.
Additional Metrics
Max Exit Velo
111.5 mph
Launch Angle
11.9°
xBA
0.473
xSLG
0.751
Batted Ball Profile
Ground Ball%
37.0%
Fly Ball%
22.2%
Line Drive%
37.0%
Pop Up%
3.7%
Projections from 2,500 Monte Carlo simulations per game. Statcast + spray refreshed daily.