Mongoose Bets | The Math Behind the Line — MLB + NFL + CFB + WNBA + PGA Analytics
SPENCER JONES
Over 1+ HR—@ —
POWERED BYMONGOOSE MODELS
Prop Board
HR 1+
no line
Hits 1+
no line
2B 1+
no line
RBI 1+
no line
TB 2+
no line
SPENCER
JONES
Over 1+ HR—
Statcast Score
82
Grade A-
Matchup
VS Michael King · RHP
90.0 MPH AVG FASTBALL
MONGOOSE
MATCHUP SCORE
MATCHUP SCORE
73
VS
ERA
2.41
WHIP
1.17
K%
22%
Statcast Matchup
| Last 10 | Allows | |
|---|---|---|
| Exit Velo | 94.1 | 84.6 |
| Barrel% | 33% | 9% |
| Hard Hit% | 51% | 28% |
| xwOBA | .560 | .326 |
| xSLG | .897 | .489 |
| Whiff% | 35% | 22% |
| Chase% | 34% | 35% |
Hot Streak
No recent logs
Elite Contact
94.1 avg EV · 32.7% barrel · 51% hard-hit
Park / Weather
HR-friendly park · weather suppressing HR
Mongoose Model Projection
—
Model Prob
—
Fair Odds
—
EDGE —
Recent Form · HR last 0 games
No recent games
Last 10: — AVG · 0 HR · 0 RBI · — OPS
HR 0.5
Season—
Home—
Last 10—
vs King—
Tonight's Park
HR
+5%
Hits
-3%
2B
-4%
3B
-45%
K
+1%
vs league average · green helps the hitter (K inverted)
Tonight's Weather + Adjustment
Temp
82°
Wind
12 340°
Rain
0%
HR Adj
-4%
K Adj
-0%
weather impact on projections · green helps the hitter
odds as of 6:45 PM ET · projections from 2,500 Monte Carlo simulations per game