Mongoose Bets | The Math Behind the Line — MLB + NFL + CFB + WNBA + PGA Analytics
Tanner Bibee
Cleveland Guardians · Kansas City Royals vs Cleveland Guardians · confirmed starter · Pitcher
ERA 4.03 · WHIP 1.18 · K 17% · 11 starts

TANNER BIBEE
K—@ —
POWERED BYMONGOOSE MODELS
Prop Board
K
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Win
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ER
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H
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TANNER
BIBEE
K—
Pitch Arsenal · 30d
4-Seam25%94 mph
Cutter24%85 mph
Changeup17%81 mph
Sinker15%93 mph
Curveball12%78 mph
Sweeper7%82 mph
Matchup
VS KC LINEUP
SEASON RATES BELOW
VS
ERA
4.03
WHIP
1.18
K%
17%
Statcast · vs MLB Avg
| Pitcher | MLB Avg | |
|---|---|---|
| Whiff% | 22% | 25% |
| SwStr% | 10.9% | 11% |
| Chase% | 31% | 28% |
| xwOBA-a | .335 | .315 |
| Barrel%-a | 9% | 8% |
| HardHit%-a | 38% | 39% |
Recent Form · Last 5
5.6
K/GM
6.0
IP/GM
4.20
ERA
1.20
WHIP
Strikeout Upside
17% season K rate
Contact Suppression
9% barrel · 38% hard-hit allowed
Park / Weather
Pitcher's park · air boosting HR
Mongoose Model Projection
—
Model Prob
—
Fair Odds
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EDGE —
Recent Form · K last 11 starts
0 of 11 starts over
Last 5: 4.20 ERA · 22% K
Season—
Home—
Last 5—
vs KC—
Tonight's Park
HR
-17%
Hits
-2%
2B
+14%
3B
-25%
K
0%
vs league average · green helps the pitcher (K not inverted)
Tonight's Weather + Adjustment
Temp
75°
Wind
7 283°
Rain
20%
HR Adj
+2%
K Adj
-6%
weather impact on projections · green helps the pitcher
odds as of 1:15 AM ET · projections from 2,500 Monte Carlo simulations per game
Projections from 2,500 Monte Carlo simulations per game. Statcast & pitch mix refreshed daily; season rates from game logs.
