Mongoose Bets | The Math Behind the Line — MLB Analytics
Tanner Bibee
Cleveland Guardians · Cleveland Guardians vs Miami Marlins · confirmed starter · Pitcher
ERA 3.72 · WHIP 1.02 · K 16% · 11 starts
TANNER BIBEE
Over K—@ —
POWERED BYMONGOOSE MODELS
Prop Board
K
no line
Win
no line
ER
no line
H
no line
TANNER
BIBEE
Over K—
Pitch Arsenal · 30d
Sinker37%93 mph
Cutter23%86 mph
4-Seam17%94 mph
Curveball11%78 mph
Changeup8%82 mph
Sweeper5%83 mph
Matchup
VS MIA LINEUP
SEASON RATES BELOW
VS
ERA
3.72
WHIP
1.02
K%
16%
Statcast · vs MLB Avg
| Pitcher | MLB Avg | |
|---|---|---|
| Whiff% | 19% | 25% |
| SwStr% | 9.3% | 11% |
| Chase% | 29% | 28% |
| xwOBA-a | .403 | .315 |
| Barrel%-a | 12% | 8% |
| HardHit%-a | 35% | 39% |
Recent Form · Last 5
3.2
K/GM
5.8
IP/GM
3.72
ERA
1.07
WHIP
Strikeout Upside
16% season K rate
Contact Suppression
12% barrel · 35% hard-hit allowed
Park / Weather
HR-suppressing park
Mongoose Model Projection
—
Model Prob
—
Fair Odds
—
EDGE —
Recent Form · K last 11 starts
0 of 11 starts over
Last 5: 3.72 ERA · 14% K
Season—
Home—
Last 5—
vs MIA—
Tonight's Park
HR
-7%
Hits
+5%
2B
+8%
3B
+6%
K
-2%
vs league average · green helps the pitcher (K not inverted)
Tonight's Weather + Adjustment
Temp
72°
Wind
0
Rain
0%
HR Adj
0%
K Adj
0%
weather impact on projections · green helps the pitcher
odds as of 4:52 PM ET · projections from 2,500 Monte Carlo simulations per game
Projections from 2,500 Monte Carlo simulations per game. Statcast & pitch mix refreshed daily; season rates from game logs.