Mongoose Bets | The Math Behind the Line — MLB + NFL + CFB + WNBA + PGA Analytics
Tyler Mahle
Atlanta Braves · Colorado Rockies vs Atlanta Braves · confirmed starter · Pitcher
ERA 3.02 · WHIP 1.12 · K 24% · 11 starts
TYLER MAHLE
K—@ —
POWERED BYMONGOOSE MODELS
Prop Board
K
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Win
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ER
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H
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TYLER
MAHLE
K—
Pitch Arsenal · 30d
4-Seam48%93 mph
Splitter36%87 mph
Cutter16%88 mph
Matchup
VS COL LINEUP
SEASON RATES BELOW
VS
ERA
3.02
WHIP
1.12
K%
24%
Statcast · vs MLB Avg
| Pitcher | MLB Avg | |
|---|---|---|
| Whiff% | 27% | 25% |
| SwStr% | 12.3% | 11% |
| Chase% | 28% | 28% |
| xwOBA-a | .428 | .315 |
| Barrel%-a | 13% | 8% |
| HardHit%-a | 47% | 39% |
Recent Form · Last 5
6.4
K/GM
6.1
IP/GM
1.48
ERA
0.96
WHIP
Strikeout Upside
24% season K rate
Contact Suppression
13% barrel · 47% hard-hit allowed
Park / Weather
Neutral park · air boosting HR
Mongoose Model Projection
—
Model Prob
—
Fair Odds
—
EDGE —
Recent Form · K last 11 starts
0 of 11 starts over
Last 5: 1.48 ERA · 27% K
Season—
Home—
Last 5—
vs COL—
Tonight's Park
HR
+3%
Hits
+2%
2B
-4%
3B
0%
K
+7%
vs league average · green helps the pitcher (K not inverted)
Tonight's Weather + Adjustment
Temp
82°
Wind
6 117°
Rain
0%
HR Adj
+2%
K Adj
-2%
weather impact on projections · green helps the pitcher
odds as of 5:42 PM ET · projections from 2,500 Monte Carlo simulations per game
Projections from 2,500 Monte Carlo simulations per game. Statcast & pitch mix refreshed daily; season rates from game logs.