Mongoose Bets | The Math Behind the Line — MLB Analytics
Tyler Mahle
San Francisco Giants · Colorado Rockies vs San Francisco Giants · confirmed starter · Pitcher
ERA 4.70 · WHIP 1.31 · K 21% · 11 starts
TYLER MAHLE
Over K—@ —
POWERED BYMONGOOSE MODELS
Prop Board
K
no line
Win
no line
ER
no line
H
no line
TYLER
MAHLE
Over K—
Pitch Arsenal · 30d
4-Seam44%93 mph
Splitter29%86 mph
Slider16%86 mph
Cutter10%89 mph
Matchup
VS COL LINEUP
SEASON RATES BELOW
VS
ERA
4.70
WHIP
1.31
K%
21%
Statcast · vs MLB Avg
| Pitcher | MLB Avg | |
|---|---|---|
| Whiff% | 26% | 25% |
| SwStr% | 13.0% | 11% |
| Chase% | 31% | 28% |
| xwOBA-a | .351 | .315 |
| Barrel%-a | 10% | 8% |
| HardHit%-a | 31% | 39% |
Recent Form · Last 5
3.8
K/GM
5.3
IP/GM
3.76
ERA
1.25
WHIP
Strikeout Upside
21% season K rate
Contact Suppression
10% barrel · 31% hard-hit allowed
Park / Weather
Pitcher's park · air boosting HR
Mongoose Model Projection
—
Model Prob
—
Fair Odds
—
EDGE —
Recent Form · K last 11 starts
0 of 11 starts over
Last 5: 3.76 ERA · 18% K
Season—
Home—
Last 5—
vs COL—
Tonight's Park
HR
-20%
Hits
+1%
2B
+3%
3B
+33%
K
-3%
vs league average · green helps the pitcher (K not inverted)
Tonight's Weather + Adjustment
Temp
72°
Wind
7 247°
Rain
0%
HR Adj
+8%
K Adj
-2%
weather impact on projections · green helps the pitcher
odds as of 3:52 PM ET · projections from 2,500 Monte Carlo simulations per game
Projections from 2,500 Monte Carlo simulations per game. Statcast & pitch mix refreshed daily; season rates from game logs.