Mongoose Bets | The Math Behind the Line — MLB + NFL + CFB + NHL + NBA + WNBA + PGA Analytics
VICTOR MESA JR.
Over 1+ HR—@ —
POWERED BYMONGOOSE MODELS
Prop Board
HR 1+
no line
Hits 1+
no line
2B 1+
no line
RBI 1+
no line
TB 2+
no line
VICTOR MESA
JR.
Over 1+ HR—
Statcast Score
44
Grade D
Matchup
VS Shawn Armstrong · RHP
88.5 MPH AVG FASTBALL
MONGOOSE
MATCHUP SCORE
MATCHUP SCORE
37
VS
ERA
5.87
WHIP
1.43
K%
18%
Statcast Matchup
| Last 10 | Allows | |
|---|---|---|
| Exit Velo | 87.6 | 83.8 |
| Barrel% | 8% | 11% |
| Hard Hit% | 44% | 26% |
| xwOBA | .359 | .337 |
| xSLG | .518 | .443 |
| Whiff% | 26% | 23% |
| Chase% | 37% | 40% |
Hot Streak
No recent logs
Elite Contact
87.6 avg EV · 8.3% barrel · 44% hard-hit
Park / Weather
Pitcher's park · weather boosting HR
Mongoose Model Projection
—
Model Prob
—
Fair Odds
—
EDGE —
Recent Form · HR last 0 games
No recent games
Last 10: — AVG · 0 HR · 0 RBI · — OPS
HR 0.5
Season—
Home—
Last 10—
vs Armstrong—
Tonight's Park
HR
-17%
Hits
-2%
2B
+14%
3B
-25%
K
0%
vs league average · green helps the hitter (K inverted)
Tonight's Weather + Adjustment
Temp
55°
Wind
23 358°
Rain
89%
HR Adj
+7%
K Adj
-2%
weather impact on projections · green helps the hitter
odds as of 10:21 PM ET · projections from 2,500 Monte Carlo simulations per game