Mongoose Bets | The Math Behind the Line — MLB + NFL + CFB + WNBA + PGA Analytics
VICTOR MESA JR.
Over 1+ HR—@ —
POWERED BYMONGOOSE MODELS
Prop Board
HR 1+
no line
Hits 1+
no line
2B 1+
no line
RBI 1+
no line
TB 2+
no line
VICTOR MESA
JR.
Over 1+ HR—
Statcast Score
55
Grade C-
Matchup
VS Sean Manaea · LHP
86.7 MPH AVG FASTBALL
MONGOOSE
MATCHUP SCORE
MATCHUP SCORE
80
VS
ERA
4.37
WHIP
1.27
K%
22%
Statcast Matchup
| Last 10 | Allows | |
|---|---|---|
| Exit Velo | 88.4 | 91.3 |
| Barrel% | 19% | 20% |
| Hard Hit% | 41% | 47% |
| xwOBA | .377 | .453 |
| xSLG | .634 | .729 |
| Whiff% | 26% | 24% |
| Chase% | 34% | 29% |
Hot Streak
No recent logs
Elite Contact
88.4 avg EV · 18.8% barrel · 41% hard-hit
Park / Weather
Neutral park · weather neutral
Mongoose Model Projection
—
Model Prob
—
Fair Odds
—
EDGE —
Recent Form · HR last 0 games
No recent games
Last 10: — AVG · 0 HR · 0 RBI · — OPS
HR 0.5
Season—
Home—
Last 10—
vs Manaea—
Tonight's Park
HR
-3%
Hits
-3%
2B
-11%
3B
+31%
K
+3%
vs league average · green helps the hitter (K inverted)
Tonight's Weather + Adjustment
Temp
72°
Wind
0
Rain
0%
HR Adj
0%
K Adj
0%
weather impact on projections · green helps the hitter
odds as of 3:18 AM ET · projections from 2,500 Monte Carlo simulations per game