Mongoose Bets | The Math Behind the Line — MLB Analytics
Walker Buehler
San Diego Padres · Toronto Blue Jays vs San Diego Padres · confirmed starter · Pitcher
ERA 5.47 · WHIP 1.50 · K 22% · 11 starts
WALKER BUEHLER
Over K—@ —
POWERED BYMONGOOSE MODELS
Prop Board
K
no line
Win
no line
ER
no line
H
no line
WALKER
BUEHLER
Over K—
Pitch Arsenal · 30d
4-Seam25%94 mph
Cutter20%90 mph
Sinker16%94 mph
Slider14%87 mph
Changeup11%89 mph
Sweeper7%82 mph
Knuckle-Curve6%81 mph
Matchup
VS TOR LINEUP
SEASON RATES BELOW
VS
ERA
5.47
WHIP
1.50
K%
22%
Statcast · vs MLB Avg
| Pitcher | MLB Avg | |
|---|---|---|
| Whiff% | 25% | 25% |
| SwStr% | 11.2% | 11% |
| Chase% | 26% | 28% |
| xwOBA-a | .351 | .315 |
| Barrel%-a | 14% | 8% |
| HardHit%-a | 46% | 39% |
Recent Form · Last 5
4.6
K/GM
4.3
IP/GM
9.14
ERA
1.75
WHIP
Strikeout Upside
22% season K rate
Contact Suppression
14% barrel · 46% hard-hit allowed
Park / Weather
HR-friendly park · air boosting HR
Mongoose Model Projection
—
Model Prob
—
Fair Odds
—
EDGE —
Recent Form · K last 11 starts
0 of 11 starts over
Last 5: 9.14 ERA · 23% K
Season—
Home—
Last 5—
vs TOR—
Tonight's Park
HR
+5%
Hits
-3%
2B
-4%
3B
-45%
K
+1%
vs league average · green helps the pitcher (K not inverted)
Tonight's Weather + Adjustment
Temp
80°
Wind
11 257°
Rain
0%
HR Adj
+13%
K Adj
-2%
weather impact on projections · green helps the pitcher
odds as of 12:52 PM ET · projections from 2,500 Monte Carlo simulations per game
Projections from 2,500 Monte Carlo simulations per game. Statcast & pitch mix refreshed daily; season rates from game logs.