Mongoose Bets | The Math Behind the Line — MLB Analytics
William Contreras
Milwaukee Brewers · San Francisco Giants vs Milwaukee Brewers
MG Score
61
C+
Tonight's Matchup
36
Matchup
Tough matchup
vs Trevor McDonald · RHP · 89.7 mph avg
50 = avg vs tonight's starters
ERA
3.74
WHIP
0.92
K%
22%
Statcast matchup
Batter
Pitcher
Exit Velo
92.2
84.8
Barrel%
12.7%
5.3%
Hard Hit%
46%
37%
xwOBA
.352
.293
xSLG
.494
.361
Whiff%
21%
24%
Chase%
31%
31%
Pitcher column = the rate this starter allows. Green = good for that player, red = poor (vs MLB average).
First career meeting vs Trevor McDonald.
Tonight's Projection
Statcast · last 30d
Exit Velo
92.2
Barrel%
12.7%
Hard Hit%
46%
Sweet Spot%
34%
xwOBA
0.352
xSLG
0.494
Recent Games
Last 5
60%
3/5 games
Last 10
80%
8/10 games
Last 20
80%
16/20 games
Last 30
77%
17/22 games
AVG
.325
OBP
.357
SLG
.450
OPS
.807
HR
1
RBI
9
| Date | vs | AB | H | HR | RBI | BB | K | SB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6/1 | San Francisco Giants | 4 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 5/30 | Houston Astros | 4 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 5/29 | Houston Astros | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 |
| 5/27 | St. Louis Cardinals | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 5/26 | St. Louis Cardinals | 4 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 |
| 5/25 | St. Louis Cardinals | 3 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 |
| 5/24 | Los Angeles Dodgers | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
| 5/22 | Los Angeles Dodgers | 4 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 5/20 | Chicago Cubs | 4 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| 5/19 | Chicago Cubs | 5 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Spray Chart
Spray Rain
Spray Read
William Contreras
Milwaukee Brewers · bats RHB
vs Pitcher Hand
Window
Avg EV
90.0 mph
Avg LA
12.0°
Hard-hit %
44%
Barrel %
15%
Outcomes (100 balls)
Home Run
1Triple
0Double
4Single
27Out
68Each dot is a real batted ball this player hit, pulled from Statcast tracking.
Projections from 2,500 Monte Carlo simulations per game. Statcast + spray refreshed daily.