Mongoose Bets | The Math Behind the Line — MLB Analytics
Yoshinobu Yamamoto
Los Angeles Dodgers · Arizona Diamondbacks vs Los Angeles Dodgers · confirmed starter · Pitcher
ERA 2.84 · WHIP 0.86 · K 27% · 11 starts
YOSHINOBU YAMAMOTO
Over K—@ —
POWERED BYMONGOOSE MODELS
Prop Board
K
no line
Win
no line
ER
no line
H
no line
YOSHINOBU
YAMAMOTO
Over K—
Pitch Arsenal · 30d
4-Seam26%97 mph
Splitter25%92 mph
Curveball14%78 mph
Sinker14%96 mph
Cutter12%92 mph
Slider7%88 mph
Matchup
VS ARI LINEUP
SEASON RATES BELOW
VS
ERA
2.84
WHIP
0.86
K%
27%
Statcast · vs MLB Avg
| Pitcher | MLB Avg | |
|---|---|---|
| Whiff% | 21% | 25% |
| SwStr% | 10.5% | 11% |
| Chase% | 32% | 28% |
| xwOBA-a | .332 | .315 |
| Barrel%-a | 7% | 8% |
| HardHit%-a | 32% | 39% |
Recent Form · Last 5
6.6
K/GM
6.7
IP/GM
3.24
ERA
0.90
WHIP
Strikeout Upside
27% season K rate
Contact Suppression
7% barrel · 32% hard-hit allowed
Park / Weather
Big HR park · air boosting HR
Mongoose Model Projection
—
Model Prob
—
Fair Odds
—
EDGE —
Recent Form · K last 11 starts
0 of 11 starts over
Last 5: 3.24 ERA · 26% K
Season—
Home—
Last 5—
vs ARI—
Tonight's Park
HR
+23%
Hits
-3%
2B
-5%
3B
-39%
K
-1%
vs league average · green helps the pitcher (K not inverted)
Tonight's Weather + Adjustment
Temp
82°
Wind
7 251°
Rain
0%
HR Adj
+20%
K Adj
-4%
weather impact on projections · green helps the pitcher
odds as of 12:57 PM ET · projections from 2,500 Monte Carlo simulations per game
Projections from 2,500 Monte Carlo simulations per game. Statcast & pitch mix refreshed daily; season rates from game logs.