Mongoose Bets | The Math Behind the Line — MLB + NFL + CFB + WNBA + PGA Analytics
Yoshinobu Yamamoto
Los Angeles Dodgers · Los Angeles Dodgers vs Atlanta Braves · confirmed starter · Pitcher
ERA 2.61 · WHIP 0.95 · K 26% · 11 starts
YOSHINOBU YAMAMOTO
K—@ —
POWERED BYMONGOOSE MODELS
Prop Board
K
no line
Win
no line
ER
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H
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YOSHINOBU
YAMAMOTO
K—
Pitch Arsenal · 30d
4-Seam28%96 mph
Splitter24%91 mph
Cutter22%92 mph
Sinker13%96 mph
Curveball10%77 mph
Matchup
VS ATL LINEUP
SEASON RATES BELOW
VS
ERA
2.61
WHIP
0.95
K%
26%
Statcast · vs MLB Avg
| Pitcher | MLB Avg | |
|---|---|---|
| Whiff% | 21% | 25% |
| SwStr% | 9.1% | 11% |
| Chase% | 28% | 28% |
| xwOBA-a | .261 | .315 |
| Barrel%-a | 11% | 8% |
| HardHit%-a | 45% | 39% |
Recent Form · Last 5
7.0
K/GM
6.5
IP/GM
1.95
ERA
0.87
WHIP
Strikeout Upside
26% season K rate
Contact Suppression
11% barrel · 45% hard-hit allowed
Park / Weather
Neutral park · air boosting HR
Mongoose Model Projection
—
Model Prob
—
Fair Odds
—
EDGE —
Recent Form · K last 11 starts
0 of 11 starts over
Last 5: 1.95 ERA · 28% K
Season—
Home—
Last 5—
vs ATL—
Tonight's Park
HR
+3%
Hits
+2%
2B
-4%
3B
0%
K
+7%
vs league average · green helps the pitcher (K not inverted)
Tonight's Weather + Adjustment
Temp
81°
Wind
5 190°
Rain
0%
HR Adj
+3%
K Adj
-2%
weather impact on projections · green helps the pitcher
odds as of 6:27 PM ET · projections from 2,500 Monte Carlo simulations per game
Projections from 2,500 Monte Carlo simulations per game. Statcast & pitch mix refreshed daily; season rates from game logs.